Foley Automotive Update

Analysis by Julie Dautermann, Competitive Intelligence Analyst

This update helps automotive suppliers inform their legal and operational decisions to address challenges and opportunities. Contact your Foley relationship partner, or Ann Marie Uetz, Vanessa L. Miller, or Nicholas J. Ellis, to follow up.

Key Developments

• U.S. new light-vehicle inventory was estimated at 2.74 million units at the beginning of March, representing a 76 days’ supply industrywide and an increase of 52% from levels one year ago, according to Cox Automotive.
• Kelley Blue Book estimates the average U.S. new-vehicle transaction price was $47,244 in February, representing a decline of 5.4% from the market peak in December 2022 but remaining 14% higher compared to February 2021.
• Analysis from Cox Automotive indicates the average U.S. new-vehicle monthly payment was $744 in February, with a loan interest rate of 10.15%.  This is a slight decline from an average monthly payment of $749 and an interest rate of 10.28% for new vehicles purchased in January.
• Stellantis will invest approximately $6.1 billion (5.6 billion euros) in South America between 2025 and 2030 to launch new products and add electrification technology to biofuel-powered hybrid vehicles.  The automaker estimates it holds a market share of 31.4% in Brazil, and 23.5% in South America.
• Toyota will invest $2.2 billion in Brazil by 2030 in initiatives that include the introduction of a new hybrid flex-fuel vehicle designed for the Brazilian market.  This follows recent announcements of planned multibillion-dollar investments in Brazil from GM, Volkswagen and Hyundai.
• A study by researchers at the University of California found LiDAR is vulnerable to object spoofing and vanishing attacks that trick the sensors into missing objects or “seeing” objects that are not present.  LiDAR technology can be used to facilitate certain automated driving features.
• Gartner predicts next-generation battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will, on average, be less expensive to produce by 2027 than comparable-model internal combustion engine vehicles. The analysis also projects that by 2027, 15% of EV companies founded in the last decade will be acquired or bankrupt.
• S&P Global Mobility predicts the number of U.S. new light-vehicle models will increase 25% from 2021 to 2027, while total U.S. sales will increase by only 10.5% over the same period.  The increased model count is expected to intensify competition amid an “uneven EV transition,” and contribute to higher costs for vehicle marketing, sales and service.
• The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.26 billion conditional loan to Lithium Americas Corp. to help finance construction of the company’s lithium carbonate processing plant at Thacker Pass in Humboldt County, Nevada.  Lithium carbonate from Thacker Pass could eventually support the production of batteries for up to 800,000 EVs annually. The first phase of production is expected to begin in 2027.
• The Wall Street Journal reports automakers that offer a range of hybrid models in the U.S. have a competitive edge, due to recent double-digit sales growth for hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

OEMs/Suppliers 

• The UAW announced a petition was filed with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) in pursuit of a union election at Volkswagen’s Chattanooga, Tennessee plant.  This will represent the third time in ten years that the UAW has sought to represent VW Chattanooga workers.
• During a recent campaign speech, former President Donald Trump stated he would implement a “100% tariff” on vehicles bound for the U.S. that are made in Mexico by Chinese companies.
• Cummins announced its new X15 diesel engine for the North American heavy-duty on-highway market will be compliant at launch with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board 2027 aligned emissions regulations.
• Ford will pay $365 million to settle allegations it misclassified certain Transit Connect vans to avoid import duties, according to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice. 

Electric Vehicles and Low Emissions Technology

• Certain fast-charging EV stations are approaching the threshold of profitability for the first time in the U.S., based on improvements in utilization described in Bloomberg. 
• According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, numerous questions remain about the best approach to establish taxes and fees for EV owners to account for the lost gasoline-tax revenue that helps maintain roads and highways. 
• The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration announced a request for information to assess the impact of widespread adoption of Tesla’s North American Charging Standard. The FHWA wants to learn more about topics that include projected demand, technical compatibility with existing regulations and safety, as well as implementation challenges and benefits. 
• Toyota reached an agreement with Panasonic to make one of their key battery joint ventures the automaker’s wholly-owned subsidiary. 
• Reuters reports a number of EV startups have responded to slowing consumer demand with strategies that include headcount reductions, prioritizing lower-priced models, and delaying certain production plans.
• Rivian will pause construction of a new factory in Georgia, in a decision that is expected to save the automaker over $2.25 billion in capital expenditures.
• Fisker Inc. will idle production of its electric Ocean SUV for six weeks amid efforts to raise funding.
• Sales of BEVs in China rose 18% in the first two months of this year, following an increase of 21% for full-year 2023, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association featured in Reuters. 
• The Wall Street Journal reports China’s best-selling car brand, BYD, is encountering a number of logistics and quality challenges amid efforts to expand in Europe.  BYD has a goal to increase its EU market share to 5% by 2025, up from 1% in 2023.
• The European Union could impose additional tariffs on Chinese EVs in the near future, according to a report in Bloomberg. 
• Later this month, smartphone maker Xiaomi expects to begin sales in China of EVs that were produced with partner Beijing Automotive Group.
• South Korea’s LT Precision Co. will invest $43 million to build manufacturing operations and establish its North American headquarters in Holland, Michigan. The company specializes in producing battery cooling plates for EV manufacturers.
• Honda and Nissan announced a collaboration to develop EVs and auto intelligence technology.
• Ford will no longer offer hybrid versions of the Explorer or Aviator midsize SUVs for retail customers, as part of a shift in hybrid strategy that will prioritize pickup trucks and smaller SUVs.
• The Department of Energy will award $80 million to GM and Nel Hydrogen to support two separate hydrogen projects in Michigan, as part of a broader $750 million funding announcement to further clean-hydrogen development through 52 projects across 24 states.  GM will receive $30 million to expand domestic fuel cell manufacturing capacity, and Nel Hydrogen will receive $50 million to support its upcoming automated gigafactory in Plymouth Charter Township.
• GM will collaborate with electric and gas utility Southern Co. and hydrogen developer Nel ASA to deploy hydrogen fuel cell-powered medium-duty trucks in Georgia. The project will be supported in part by $26 million in federal funding awarded from the Department of Energy’s SuperTruck 3 program and the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Office.
• The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation on March 12 released a strategic plan to support the deployment of EV charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure on the nation’s freight corridors. A key objective of the strategy is “to meet freight truck and technology markets where they are today, determine where they are likely to develop next, and set an ambitious pathway that mobilizes actions to achieve decarbonization.”

Automated, Autonomous or Connected Vehicles Technologies

• Navistar will collaborate with automated driving technology provider Plus to further develop hub-to-hub autonomous Class 8 trucks.  The companies are currently testing autonomous International LT Series tractors equipped with the Plus SuperDrive system on public roads in Texas, and a commercial pilot program is planned by the end of this year.
• A new whitepaper from Infor and the Center for Automotive Research provides strategies to further automotive digital transformation amid market uncertainty.
• An Insurance Institute for Highway Safety assessment of partially automated driver-assist systems resulted in a marginal or poor rating for thirteen of the fourteen tested vehicle models.

Market Trends and Regulatory

• The EPA is expected to finalize vehicle emission standards in the coming days, according to a report in Bloomberg. 
• U.S. lawmakers are reported to be “closing in” on the support required to pass federal legislation to maintain AM broadcast radio in every new vehicle at no additional charge to consumers.  Proponents of the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act argue the feature is crucial for rural areas and emergency communication.  The Alliance for Automotive Innovation indicated high-voltage electrical systems in EVs will distort AM signals, and consumers have access to alternatives such as satellite and internet-based radio.